During the recent debate about rezoning agricultural land in Kings Co., NS, it has been suggested that Nova Scotia has excess capacity to produce food, and therefore converting a couple of hundred acres of farmland into lawns and driveways, would have little impact on our agricultural capacity.
The facts seem to tell a different story.
It is interesting to note that two different and independent calculations result in similar conclusions.
First, data from the NS Dept. Agriculture, Statistics Canada, and Strategis show that in 2006, farm cash receipts totalled $438M. This includes $193M of sales (44%) within NS, the rest being sold outside the province. Of all the food bought by consumers in grocery stores, 23% of the meat, and 18% of the produce, are grown in Atlantic Canada. Let’s average it to 20%, and generously assume half of it (10%) came from NS.
Now imagine that the entire NS farm output is consumed in the province. This would only feed 23% of Nova Scotians (23% = $438M × 10% ÷ $193M). To put it another way, it would feed all Nova Scotians from January to the end of March.
A second method is based on the more scientific fact that, according to Dr. Ralph Martin of the Agricultural College in Truro, it takes 0.3 to 0.5 hectares (¾ to 1¼ acres) to feed one person. There are 110,000 hectares of arable land in NS, which can feed between 220,000 and 333,333 people, or 24% to 36% of Nova Scotians. This number is higher because not all land is planted.
23% to 36%? This is a far cry from “excess capacity”.
Why is this important? Don’t we live in abundance? Our grocery megastores are a cornucopia of lettuce from California, melons from Mexico, and grapes from Chile. Can’t we just forget about feeding ourselves?
Well, there’s a problem looming on the horizon. Our supply of petroleum has begun an irreversible and permanent decline. We will never run out of oil. We will simply run out of affordable oil. The cost of transporting goods from afar will increase, and become a huge part of the price of food. Local food will become relatively cheaper, and farmers will be more competitive. If there are any left.
For every acre we lose, we will have to compensate by depending on expensive imports. We will all, collectively, bear the burden.
The proponents of subdivision development quote an expert, formerly of the Dept. Agriculture, who says that Nova Scotia has the capacity to grow more food. The reasoning goes that, when food prices increase, it creates an incentive for farmers to innovate, become more efficient and productive, and put more land in production.
This is true in principle. But even if we double or triple farm productivity, we still fall short of self-sufficiency. Also, when you’re scrambling to find more land, does it make sense to liquidate what is already available? Finally, increases of productivity depend on fertilizer, pesticides, machinery and fuel, which are all based on hydrocarbons. The assumption that these resources will continue to be available and affordable, is no longer valid.
This is not going to happen tomorrow or next year. We have time left to adapt. Meanwhile, farmers are facing serious challenges. The push to build on farmland is, in some cases, a desperate attempt to stay afloat. It is imperative that we find solutions to help them survive. Be it land banks, conservation easements, more subsidies, or buying local, we need to find ways to insure that our farmland, our farmers and all the businesses that depend on farming, are still around when we need them.
It is said that water and food are the oil of the twenty-first century. Good farmland will one day be far more valuable to grow food, than to build houses. Kings County is uniquely positioned to prosper in this era.